Light rainfall data and satellite imagery challenge initial assumptions; scientists call for urgent monitoring of high-risk Himalayan lakes.
A day after the deadly flash flood swept through Dharali village in Uttarkashi district, killing at least four and leaving many missing, experts are questioning whether the disaster was truly triggered by a cloudburst — or by something far more dangerous.
Initial reports blamed intense rainfall, but data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows only light to moderate showers in the region, far below the threshold for a cloudburst, which requires over 100 mm of rain in an hour. The heaviest rainfall in the district headquarters measured just 27 mm, with upstream gauges showing 8–10 mm between August 4 and 5.
This discrepancy has led scientists to examine satellite images, which reveal glaciers and at least two glacial lakes upstream of Dharali. Retired glaciologist Dr. D.P. Dobhal suggests the flash flood may have been caused by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) — when water trapped behind glacial ice or moraines is suddenly released, unleashing torrents of water and debris downstream.
The suspected event bears similarities to the 2021 Chamoli disaster, when a rock-ice avalanche triggered a massive flood in Raini village. Uttarakhand, home to over 1,260 glacial lakes — 13 of them classified as “risk level A” by the NDMA — is particularly vulnerable to such incidents.
While local disaster officials say three cloudburst incidents were also recorded in the area, they acknowledge more data is needed before ruling out a GLOF. “In the mountains, the weather can change in an instant,” said Shardul Gusain, Uttarkashi’s District Disaster Management Officer.
The tragedy underscores the urgent need for real-time monitoring of high-altitude glacial lakes and robust early warning systems to protect Himalayan communities from climate-driven disasters.
Post Views: 7
