SUNDAY AM: Refresh for more….Ok, ok, ok, so Marvel Studios/Disney‘s The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter at $118M after a -42% slide on Saturday against Friday/previews for what was $33.2M. As we said yesterday, cynics, go pound sand. $100M-plus opening for the industry? What major studio wouldn’t want that? Also, for a superhero movie to continue to do $100M+ in its 3-day starts, va bene.
Still, that’s a steep Friday/previews to Saturday decline, which indicates the movie was front-loaded. Nobody was spotting that yesterday, the lowest was a $120M debut. And families always go to the movies on Saturday. Fantastic Four‘s fall is sharper than Superman (-33%), Thunderbolts* (-22%), Deadpool & Wolverine (-36%), and Captain America: Brave New World (-32%).
Wha happened?
Essentially, fewer families went to see Marvel’s first family than DC Studios’ Superman. Go figure. According to EntTelligence, while metro centers with populations over 1M overperformed on Fantastic Four: First Steps, rural and suburban areas (where families live) under performed on average -13%. Also, kids under 13 only repped 13% of the population. It just is what it is. It doesn’t mean Fantastic Four is broken, it’s just a crappy thing when the industry overprojects on a big movie, and then it comes in lighter by Sunday and Monday. Disney figures that Fantastic Four will ease -16% today with $27.8M.
The norm attendance for families to a PG-13 superhero movie is 21% per EntTelligence. Fantastic Four came in at 17%.
I’m telling you again for the Nth time: whenever tracking or studio’s distribution departments project on $100M+ openings, there’s always a rounding an error. It’s never perfect. One box office insider said “On Friday, I had Fantastic Four doing $135M.”
Also, there’s a lot of PG-13 family entertainment in the market this weekend with the third weekend of Superman doing $24.8M, and Universal’s Jurassic World Rebirth at $13M in its fourth sesh.
Also good to note that older audiences embraced Fantastic Four more (maybe it’s the period of it all that kept some families away) with Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak showing that the best definite recommends came from 35-44 at 80%, 45-54 at 72% and over 55 at 78% versus 18-24 at 69% and 25-34 at 69%.
Imax and PLFs were huge at 40%, with Imax alone contributing close to 14% of the weekend or $16M at 418 hubs. That’s the second-highest ever domestic market share for an MCU film and eighth consecutive +10% domestic indexing opening for Imax. 3D repped 13%.
We’re building the chart, Sunday updates in bold:
1. Fantastic Four (Dis) 4,125 theaters, Fri $57M, Sat $33.2M Sun $27.8M, 3-day $118M/Wk 1
2. Superman (WB) 3,930 (-345) theaters, Fri $7.1M (-57%) Sat $9.8M Sun $7.9M, 3-day $24.8M (-57%), Total $289.5M/Wk 3
3. Jurassic World Rebirth (Uni) 3,550 (-304) theaters, Fri $3.7M (-44%) Sat $5.2M Sun $4M 3-day $13M (-45%), Total $301.5M/Wk 4
4. F1 (WB) 2,615 (-479) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-36%) Sat $2.5M Sun $1.8M 3-day $6.2M (-37%), Total $165.6M/Wk 5
5. Smurfs (Par) 3,504 theaters, Fri $1.72M (-57%) Sat $2M Sun $1.6M 3-day $5.4M (-51%), Total $22.7M/Wk 2
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer (Sony) Fri $1.62M (-72%), 3-day $5M (-61%), Total $23.4M/Wk 2
7. How to Train Your Dragon (Uni) 2,346 (-502) theaters, Fri $850K (-48%) Sat $1.1M Sun $840K 3-day $2.8M (-48%), Total $257M/Wk 7
8. Saiyaara (YRF) 210 (-85) theaters, $390K (+143%), 3-day $1.8M (+131%), Total $3.7M/Week 2
9. Eddington (A24) 2065 (-46) theaters, Fri $478K (-73%) Sat $641K Sun $545K 3-day $1.66M (-64%), Total $8.1M/Wk 2
10. Oh Hi! (SPC) 866 theaters, Fri $743K, 3-day $1.1M/Wk 1
SATURDAY AM: The Fantastic Four: First Steps at $120M-$125M is one of the sixth best openings for a Marvel Cinematic Universe title post Covid and that’s a great thing. For all the “does it or does it not beat Superman?” in the Coke and Pepsi fight between Marvel and DC – who cares? It’s the fourth $100M-plus opening of the year for a movie and that spells “excellent” for the business. Not to mention, it’s solid footing for a superhero movie.
There is still a path to $125M, as we told you the movie has been pacing like James Gunn’s Superman. Yesterday’s first/day previews for Fantastic Four came in at $57M, which is $900K ahead of Superman‘s $56.1M, and the second highest opening day of 2025 to date behind A Minecraft Movie‘s $57.1M. Wouldn’t ya know — the MCU title also received an A- CinemaScore, the same as Superman. If the movie comes in under $125M, box office nerds, it’s not the end of the world or the demise of the superhero movie. As we always report, and this was true pre-Covid, predicting $100M+ openings given the small sampling isn’t a perfect science.
The Hollywood feature directorial debut of WandaVision helmer Matt Shakman is poised to rank as his highest opening at the domestic box office. Ditto for Pedro Pascal (his previous being Gladiator 2 at $55M), Joseph Quinn (same, Gladiator 2), Vanessa Kirby (previous Mission: Impossible Fallout at $61M) and Ebon Moss-Bachrach (previous being Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings at $15M).
Some in the industry had their doubts as to whether Fantastic Four could tip $100M as this was a period movie, however, rivals are applauding Disney’s marketing campaign which connected with audiences. Marketing campaign under Disney marketing czar Asad Ayaz leaned into the uniqueness that this was a period MCU movie with its retro-futuristic 1960s aesthetic and optimism as well as introducing Marvel’s first family, and the threat of new big baddie Galactus.
PLFs and Imax are contributing a huge 40% of the weekend with 3D alone accounting for 13%. The movie is playing evenly throughout the United States and Canada, but best in South, South Central and West. AMC Disney Springs in Orlando is the highest grossing location so far with just over $176K.
Definite recommend has upticked to 72% which is right around where Superman was at 74%. The Latino/Hispanic and Asian American moviegoer turnout was higher on First Steps than Superman respectively with (31% to 26%) and (11% to 9%). Black moviegoers turnout was even between both movies at 19%. Caucasian was bigger on Superman over Marvel’s first family, 41% to 34%.
Under 35 turnout on First Steps is 71% to Superman‘s 66%. Overall, again, very similar demos between the movies with Fantastic Four showing men over 25 (40%) to Superman‘s 43%; men under 25 at 29% to Superman‘s 25%, women over 25 at 20% to 19%, and women under 25 at 11% to 13%. Male to female split at 69%/31% is close to par with Gunn’s Man of Steel pic.
This weekend for all titles is coming in at $194M, which is -32% off from a year ago when MCU delivered the biggest opening for a R-rated movie in Deadpool & Wolverine ($211.4M), that Shawn Levy-directed movie driving a $284.8M overall Friday-Sunday.
We’ll have more updates as the weekend goes on in this crazy San Diego Comic-Con weekend. Speaking of Gunn, he’ll be down here showing off the second season of DC HBO’s Peacemaker season 2. Amazon MGM Studios is also here with Ryan Gosling and Project Hail Mary with Ketchup Entertainment showing off the first public footage of the Warner Bros-made Coyote vs. Acme this morning.
1. Fantastic Four (Dis) 4,125 theaters, Fri $57M, 3-day $120M-$125M/Wk 1
2. Superman (WB) 3,930 (-345) theaters, Fri $7.1M (-57%), 3-day $24.5M (-58%), Total $289.1M/Wk 3
3. Jurassic World Rebirth (Uni) 3,550 (-304) theaters, Fri $3.65M (-45%), 3-day $13M (-45%), Total $301.5M/Wk 4
4. F1 (WB) 2,615 (-479) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-36%), 3-day $6.3M (-36%), Total $165.6M/Wk 5
5. Smurfs (Par) 3,504 theaters, Fri $1.72M (-57%), 3-day $5.6M (-49%), Total $22.9M/Wk 2
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer (Sony) Fri $1.62M (-72%), 3-day $5M (-61%), Total $23.4M/Wk 2
7. How to Train Your Dragon (Uni) 2,346 (-502) theaters, Fri $850K (-48%), 3-day $2.79M (-48%), Total $257M/Wk 7
8. Saiyaara (YRF) 210 (-85) theaters, $390K (+143%), 3-day $1.8M (+131%), Total $3.7M/Week 2
9. Eddington (A24) 2065 (-46) theaters, Fri $478K (-73%), 3-day $1.6M (-64%), Total $8M/Wk 2
10. Oh Hi! (SPC) 886 theaters, Fri $743K, 3-day $1.5M/Wk 1
FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Marvel Studios and Disney’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps is looking a lot like DC’s Superman right now in its opening: an estimated $56 million Friday and a three-day total of around $125M.
Family movies, and this is Marvel’s first family, tend to see a lot of walk-up business on Saturday, so that’s working in the Matt Shakman-directed movie’s favor. We’ll monitor changing demos throughout the weekend, but Superman pulled in 31% parents and kids (9% under 12). Fantastic Four pulled in 7% kids under 12 last night with a 93% general audience according to Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. The under-35 crowd was massive last night at 70% versus Superman‘s 66%. Friday’s cume of course includes last night’s $24.4M in previews.
Exits are very good: 70% definite recommend from the main audience and 70% from kids under 12.
We’ll have more updates as they come.
RELATED: ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ International Box Office – Latest
FRIDAY AM UPDATE after THURSDAY EXCLUSIVE: Marvel Studios and Disney’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps came in higher than DC’s Superman as far as previews go, with a studio-reported $24.4 million.
That’s higher than MCU’s Captain Marvel ($20.7M), which went on to post a Friday of $61.7M and a 3-day of $153.4M. It’s also not far from Captain America: Civil War, which posted a $25M Thursday before a $75.5M Friday and $179.1M opening frame.
Want more? Marvel numbers are fun. First Steps’ Thursday night alone also came close to toppling the opening weekend of the previous Fox-Marvel movie Fantastic Four from Josh Trank, which debuted to $25.6M. The original Tim Story-directed Fantastic Four at Fox debuted to $56M, with the 2007 sequel Fantastic Four: Silver Surfer opening to $58M.
MCU’s take starring Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Julia Garner will beat that opening, as its earlier-week projections were for $100M-$110M.
iSpot shows that Disney had a lower spend on Fantastic Four on linear than Warner Bros did on Superman, $14.6M-$28.1M. Disney’s campaign reached 950 million household TV ad impressions while Superman‘s hit 1.52 billion. Fantastic Four: First Steps spot ran during NBA games (17.7%), Good Morning America (3.5%), SportsCenter (3.4%), Bachelor in Paradise (2.7%) and MLB games (2.7%). The top networks for First Steps spots by impressions were ABC (31.0%), ESPN (8.5%), FX (6.8%), Freeform (6.3%) and National Geographic (4.6%). Note the above doesn’t include cross-promo spots Disney had with other brands.
Here’s how the rest of the week went:
1.) Superman (WB) 4,275 theaters, Thu $4.76M (-28% from Wed), Week $86.8M (-51%), Total $264.6M/Wk 2
2.) Jurassic World Rebirth (Uni) 3,854 theaters, Thu $2.38M (-12%), Week $35.7M (-41%), Total $288.5M/Wk 3
3.) I Know What You Did Last Summer (Sony) 3,206 theaters, Thu $1M (-16%), Week $18.4M/Wk 1
4.) Smurfs (Par) 3,504 theaters, Thu $1.26M (-9%), Week $17.4M/Wk 1
5.) F1 (Apple/WB), 3,094 theaters, Thu $1.13M (-13%), Week $15.3M (-26%), Total $159.3M/Wk 4
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE, Thursday PM: Superhero movies aren’t dead, silly. The second comic-book movie in the past two weeks, Disney/Marvel Studios’ The Fantastic Four: First Steps is conquering around $23 million in previews tonight that began at 2 p.m.. Domestic outlook was $100M-$110M, but the Matt Shakman-directed movie is bound to shoot higher. The numbers are from sources, not Disney.
These mark the best previews for an MCU title year to date, double that of Thunderbolts* ($11.5M, $31.8M Friday, $74.3M opening) and 92% higher than Captain America: Brave New World ($12M, $40.9M Friday, $88.8M 3-day). First Steps‘ current RT critic score is 88% and audience is 92% for the 1960s-futuristic-themed movie, which are close to the respective figures of Thunderbolts* (88%/93%), and critically higher than last summer’s Deadpool & Wolverine (78%) and about the same with that R-rated MCU title’s audience rating (94%).
Fantastic Four‘s Thursday is also the 12th time that an MCU movie has posted previews north of $20M+ (2019’s Avengers: Endgame still owns the all-time domestic preview record with $60M).
Tonight’s figure is similar to the $22.5M previews that James Gunn’s Superman did two Thursdays ago (granted, that figure included an extra $2.8M in Amazon Prime member advance screenings). For those with short memories, Superman went on to do a $56.1M Friday (of which previews repped 40%) and an opening of $125M off an A- CinemaScore, 84% Rotten Tomatoes critics score and 92% audience rating.
Social media analytics firm RelishMix reports that Fantastic Four is the first movie of the year to break the billion mark in regards to social media reach across TikTok, Facebook, X, Instagram and YouTube, ahead of Jurassic World Rebirth (921M) and Superman (953M). Other movies with a billion followers on social media include 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home (1.2 billion) and Deadpool & Wolverine (1.15 billion).
RelishMix says “this cast is fully social and nearly completely activated, especially after the world premiere red carpet, including Pedro Pascal at 11.4M, Joseph Quinn at 5.6M, Vanessa Kirby at 2.6M and Julia Garner at 1.5M.”
The analytics org reports, “Convo on The Fantastic Four: First Steps is running positive as fans are interested in Marvel delving into the ‘60s retro-futurist setting and the promise of a new chapter for the comics universe. Comments include, ‘Setting it in the ’60s was a good idea. This looks better than the previous Fantastic Four movies.’ and ‘This is maybe the first Marvel film I’m genuine excited for — can’t wait to see it.’ The individuality of the film is alluring to many: ‘So excited to get a new Marvel film where I haven’t had to watch hours of existing movies/shows as a prerequisite for watching!’ The film’s villain, Galactus, is a cool element for many: ‘Galactus is Coming this movie is about to be Fantastic!’ and, ‘The shadow of that helmet — chills.’”
